CryptoExpires Jan 1, 2027

Another crypto hack over $100m by September 30?

Probability

73¢

1h

+0.3pp

24h

+0.4pp

24h Vol

$0.00

Liquidity

$3.2K

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
Apr 21, 2026, 04:00Apr 25, 2026, 19:12
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  1. 1

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 6010h with open resolution ambiguity.

  2. 2

    Wide spread — 33.5¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 6009.8h

    LOW
  • 19:12Signal

    Resolution risk

    Expires in 6010h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW

Price movement

+0.2pp over the last 24h, now 73¢.

Biggest hourly move: -9.1pp at 03:00 (to 73¢).

Show all 14 hour-by-hour ticks
  • 10:00 · -3.1pp → 73¢
  • 07:00 · -9.1pp → 73¢
  • 05:00 · -8.5pp → 73¢
  • 03:00 · -9.1pp → 73¢
  • 02:00 · -3.6pp → 73¢
  • 00:00 · -4.3pp → 73¢
  • 23:00 · -6.2pp → 73¢
  • 1d ago · -5.4pp → 73¢
  • 1d ago · -3.3pp → 72¢
  • 1d ago · -3.1pp → 72¢
  • 1d ago · -3.0pp → 73¢
  • 2d ago · -3.2pp → 73¢
  • 2d ago · -6.3pp → 73¢
  • 2d ago · -6.5pp → 73¢
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This is a market on whether any crypto project or exchange suffers an exploit or hack of value at least $100 million USD equivalent between the creation of this market and 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Decentralized exchanges and lending protocol hacks will count. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Rekt News leaderboard (https://rekt.news/leaderboard/), however a credible consensus of reporting may also be used.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Jan 1, 2027
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
rekt.newsSource not classifiedextracted · low
rekt.news
Market type
Binary
  • Wide spread (33.5¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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