Another crypto hack over $100m by September 30?
Probability
73¢
1h
+0.3pp
24h
+0.4pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$3.2K
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 6010h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Wide spread — 33.5¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 6009.8h
- 19:12SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 6010h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
+0.2pp over the last 24h, now 73¢.
Biggest hourly move: -9.1pp at 03:00 (to 73¢).
Show all 14 hour-by-hour ticks
- 10:00 · -3.1pp → 73¢
- 07:00 · -9.1pp → 73¢
- 05:00 · -8.5pp → 73¢
- 03:00 · -9.1pp → 73¢
- 02:00 · -3.6pp → 73¢
- 00:00 · -4.3pp → 73¢
- 23:00 · -6.2pp → 73¢
- 1d ago · -5.4pp → 73¢
- 1d ago · -3.3pp → 72¢
- 1d ago · -3.1pp → 72¢
- 1d ago · -3.0pp → 73¢
- 2d ago · -3.2pp → 73¢
- 2d ago · -6.3pp → 73¢
- 2d ago · -6.5pp → 73¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This is a market on whether any crypto project or exchange suffers an exploit or hack of value at least $100 million USD equivalent between the creation of this market and 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Decentralized exchanges and lending protocol hacks will count. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Rekt News leaderboard (https://rekt.news/leaderboard/), however a credible consensus of reporting may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jan 1, 2027
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- rekt.newsSource not classifiedextracted · lowrekt.news
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (33.5¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.