Arcium FDV above $200M one day after launch?
Probability
45¢
1h
+1.5pp
24h
+0.5pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$621.73
Probability (last 7 days)
+29.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 14774h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Wide spread — 63.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 14774.4h
- 14:33SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 14774h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 44¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.0pp
to 48¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 14.0pp
to 41¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 17.5pp
to 44¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 15.5pp
to 43¢
- 23:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 19.0pp
to 46¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 19.5pp
to 47¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 18.0pp
to 45¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 18.5pp
to 46¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 21.0pp
to 48¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 22.0pp
to 48¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 18.5pp
to 45¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 27.0pp
to 48¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 21.0pp
to 43¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 22.5pp
to 44¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 26.5pp
to 47¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 27.0pp
to 49¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 21.0pp
to 41¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 30.5pp
to 47¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 28.0pp
to 49¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 27.0pp
to 49¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 35.0pp
to 48¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 24.5pp
to 45¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 19.0pp
to 41¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 23.5pp
to 46¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 20.5pp
to 43¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 24.0pp
to 45¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 21.5pp
to 43¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Arcium's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." Only an official token launched by Arcium will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count. The token must be actively and publicly tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Arcium (https://x.com/Arcium) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".https://polymarket.com/event/betmoar-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- Jan 1, 2028
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
- Wide spread (63.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).