Set Handicap: Cerundolo (-1.5) vs Darderi (+1.5)
Probability
41¢
1h
-12.5pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$3.2K
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 1 factor- 1
Wide spread — 6.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 202.2h
Price movement
-28.0pp over the last 24h, now 41¢.
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market refers to the tennis match between Francisco Cerundolo and Luciano Darderi in the Madrid Open, originally scheduled for April 27, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Cerundolo" if Francisco Cerundolo wins by 2 or more sets than Luciano Darderi, based on the final completed score. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Darderi." If the match begins but is not completed, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled before play begins or delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a result, this market will also resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official ATP results.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 4, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (6.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.
Top Holders
No holder data from the Data API.