Set 1 Winner: Ilagan vs McCabe

• 01
  Price move

  Up 3pp over 24h

  Now 70¢; flat in the last hour.

• 02
  Active signal

  Resolution-risk signal firing

  Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.

• 03
  Spread cost

  Wide spread — 59.0¢

  Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

This market refers to the tennis match between Andre Ilagan and James McCabe in the Jiujiang, originally scheduled for April 28, 2026 at 2:00AM ET. This market will resolve to “Ilagan” if Andre Ilagan wins the first set. It will resolve to “McCabe” if James McCabe wins the first set. If the match begins but is not completed, and the first set is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on that completed set. If the first set is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official Challenger match statistics.