Set 1 Winner: Nakashima vs Blockx
Probability
100¢
1h
+54.6pp
24h
+52.6pp
24h Vol
$654.16
Liquidity
$8.9K
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 4 factors- 1
Up 53pp over 24h
Now 100¢; +54.6pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 163h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Thin liquidity
Only $8.9k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
- 4
UMA status: proposed
An open UMA dispute or pending oracle vote can move price independently of underlying odds. Wait for settlement before treating the line as the market view.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Wait for the UMA proposal to settle (current status: proposed) — price moves now reflect oracle dynamics, not odds.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 163.3h
- 13:42SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 163h with open resolution ambiguity.
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market refers to the tennis match between Brandon Nakashima and Alexander Blockx in the Madrid Open, originally scheduled for April 25, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to “Nakashima” if Brandon Nakashima wins the first set. It will resolve to “Blockx” if Alexander Blockx wins the first set. If the match begins but is not completed, and the first set is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on that completed set. If the first set is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official ATP match statistics.
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- May 2, 2026
- UMA status
- proposed
- Resolution source
- https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
- Market type
- Binary
- UMA status: proposed
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).