Sinner vs. Moeller: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5
Probability
51¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$56.76
Liquidity
$862.27
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 1 factor- 1
Wide spread — 5.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 179.9h
Price movement
-18.5pp over the last 24h, now 51¢.
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market refers to the tennis match between Jannik Sinner and Elmer Moeller in the Madrid Open, originally scheduled for April 26, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Over" if the total number of games completed in the first set equals or exceeds 9. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Under." Any first-set tiebreak counts as one (1) game toward the total. If the first set is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled before play begins, or delayed beyond 7 days without commencement, this market will also resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official ATP results.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 3, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (5.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
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