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OtherExpires Apr 27, 2026

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026?

Probability

57¢

1h

+6.0pp

24h

+40.0pp

24h Vol

$419.2K

Liquidity

$37.0K

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
Apr 21, 2026, 22:00Apr 24, 2026, 18:09
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

 

Without an Anthropic API key we show a heuristic summary derived from the market metrics.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice
  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 53.8h

    HIGH
  • 18:10Signal

    Signal · Clustered NO flow

    25 trades ($5,882) aligned on NO across 22 wallets in the last 30 min.

    HIGH
  • 18:10Signal

    Signal · Momentum up

    Probability moved up 40.0pp in 24h with 11.3× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

    HIGH
  • 18:10Signal

    Signal · Resolution risk

    Expires in 54h with open resolution ambiguity.

    MEDIUM
  • 18:07Trade

    Motionless-Artifact · SELL YES $5.3K

    @ 88¢

    MEDIUM
  • 18:00Price

    Probability up 21.5pp

    to 62¢

    MEDIUM
  • 17:00Price

    Probability up 6.0pp

    to 50¢

    MEDIUM
  • 14:00Price

    Probability down -31.0pp

    to 15¢

    MEDIUM
  • 13:00Price

    Probability down -22.0pp

    to 25¢

    MEDIUM
  • 12:00Price

    Probability down -17.5pp

    to 28¢

    MEDIUM
  • 11:00Price

    Probability down -37.0pp

    to 8¢

    MEDIUM
  • 10:00Price

    Probability down -36.5pp

    to 9¢

    MEDIUM
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

25
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Resolution & Risk

HIGH risk
End date
Apr 27, 2026
Resolution source
UMA status
n/a
Market type
Binary
  • No primary resolution source listed — read the market rules.
  • Market expires Apr 27, 2026 — dispute window active.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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