Spread: Hamburger SV (-2.5)
Probability
24¢
1h
+21.1pp
24h
+20.5pp
24h Vol
$177.99
Liquidity
$12.2K
Probability (last 7 days)
+17.9pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 4 factors- 1
Up 21pp over 24h
Now 24¢; +21.1pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 3
Wide spread — 45.9¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
- 4
Past expiry — awaiting resolution
Market is past its end date. Any price move now is a settlement / dispute artefact, not new information.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Loading prose summary — see the structured breakdown above.
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 16:59SignalMEDIUM
Signal · Resolution risk
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 16:30ResolveHIGH
Market resolved 0h ago
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.2pp
to 3¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.9pp
to 3¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.6pp
to 2¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 2¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.3pp
to 2¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.4pp
to 2¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.4pp
to 2¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.8pp
to 3¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.3pp
to 2¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.7pp
to 2¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.9pp
to 4¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.1pp
to 3¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 3¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 4¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 2¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.7pp
to 3¢
- 4d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.1pp
to 2¢
- 4d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.1pp
to 3¢
- 4d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.6pp
to 3¢
- 4d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.2pp
to 2¢
- 4d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.1pp
to 3¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
In the upcoming Bundesliga game, scheduled for April 25 at 12:30 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Hamburger SV" if Hamburger SV win the game by 3 or more goals. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "TSG 1899 Hoffenheim". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. This market will resolve according to the official final score published on bundesliga.com. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Apr 25, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- official statisticsOfficial statisticsbundesliga.com
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires Apr 25, 2026 — dispute window active.
- Wide spread (45.9¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.