Will Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (CBRL) beat quarterly earnings?
Probability
85¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-2.5pp
24h Vol
$14.77
Liquidity
$1.3K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 4, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (6.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Down 3pp over 24h
Now 85¢; flat in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Resolution source is ambiguous or relies on public-figure statements — verify before treating price as the market view.
- 03Spread cost
Wide spread — 6.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 4, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (6.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- Jun 4, 21:00 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 82.7h
- 10:17SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Resolution source is ambiguous or relies on public-figure statements — verify before treating price as the market view.
Price movement
-2.5pp over the last 24h, now 85¢.
Biggest hourly move: +24.5pp at May 28, 13:00 UTC (to 75¢).
Show top 8 of 50 hourly moves
- May 29, 01:00 UTC · +20.5pp → 77¢
- May 28, 23:00 UTC · +19.0pp → 75¢
- May 28, 22:00 UTC · +19.0pp → 75¢
- May 28, 20:00 UTC · +24.5pp → 75¢
- May 28, 18:00 UTC · +24.5pp → 75¢
- May 28, 16:00 UTC · +24.5pp → 75¢
- May 28, 15:00 UTC · +24.5pp → 75¢
- May 28, 13:00 UTC · +24.5pp → 75¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
As of market creation, Cracker Barrel Old Country Store is estimated to release earnings on June 4, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Cracker Barrel Old Country Store’s non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $-0.46 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Cracker Barrel Old Country Store reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $-0.46 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If Cracker Barrel Old Country Store releases earnings without non-GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the non-GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents; or, if not published there, according to the GAAP EPS provided by SeekingAlpha. If no GAAP EPS number is available from either source at that time, the market will resolve to “No.” (For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless it is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.) If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced non-GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024). Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for non-GAAP EPS. Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS. Note: If multiple versions of non-GAAP EPS are published, the market will resolve according to the primary headline non-GAAP EPS number, which is typically presented on a diluted basis. If diluted is not published, then basic non-GAAP EPS will qualify. Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated. Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
nasdaqReason
Nasdaq index — Macro / Markets.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (CBRL) beat quarterly earnings?"?
As of Mon, 01 Jun 2026 10:17:39 GMT, YES is priced at 85% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -2.5pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Jun 4, 2026 (2026-06-04T21:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://seekingalpha.com/.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from https://seekingalpha.com/. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$14.77 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $502.36. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $1.3K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 6.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
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