Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $56 on the final trading day of June 2026?
Probability
93¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+3.3pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$341.98
Probability (last 7 days)
+3.6pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Up 3pp over 24h
Now 93¢; flat in the last hour.
- 2
Wide spread — 4.5¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 1586.6h
- 15:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.7pp
to 93¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.3pp
to 93¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.3pp
to 93¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.4pp
to 93¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.3pp
to 93¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.3pp
to 93¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.4pp
to 93¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.4pp
to 93¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 89¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.7pp
to 87¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 90¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.9pp
to 90¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.8pp
to 90¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.7pp
to 87¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.8pp
to 90¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Crude Oil futures on the final trading day of June 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration. Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count. Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract. Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored. This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.settlements.html
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (4.5¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
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