SportsExpires Apr 26, 2026

Counter-Strike: Ursa vs Walczaki - Map 2 Winner

Probability

1h

-40.5pp

24h

-50.4pp

24h Vol

$3.3K

Liquidity

$25.7K

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
Apr 25, 2026, 09:00Apr 26, 2026, 12:45
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 5 factors
  • 1

    Down 50pp over 24h

    Now 0¢; -40.5pp in the last hour.

  • 2

    Momentum signal firing

    Probability moved down 50.4pp in 24h with 0.1× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

  • 3

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 4h with open resolution ambiguity.

  • 4

    Expiry in 4h

    Market resolves within 72 hours — the move likely reflects information about the resolution event itself rather than longer-horizon repricing. Verify the resolution source.

  • 5

    UMA status: proposed

    An open UMA dispute or pending oracle vote can move price independently of underlying odds. Wait for settlement before treating the line as the market view.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
  • Wait for the UMA proposal to settle (current status: proposed) — price moves now reflect oracle dynamics, not odds.
  • Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 4 hours.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 17:00Resolve

    Market resolves in 4.2h

    HIGH
  • 12:46Signal

    Momentum down

    Probability moved down 50.4pp in 24h with 0.1× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

    HIGH
  • 12:46Signal

    Resolution risk

    Expires in 4h with open resolution ambiguity.

    MEDIUM

Price movement

-50.5pp over the last 24h, now 0¢.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Quarterfinal 3 match between Ursa and Walczaki in the NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs, initially scheduled for April 26 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Ursa" if Ursa win Map 2 against Walczaki. This market will resolve to "Walczaki" if Walczaki win Map 2 against Ursa. If the match begins but is not completed, and Map 2 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Map 2. If Map 2 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Resolution & Risk

HIGH risk
End date
Apr 26, 2026
UMA status
proposed
Resolution source
Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Type
News consensus
Market type
Binary
  • UMA status: proposed
  • Market expires Apr 26, 2026 — dispute window active.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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