Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on April 30?
Probability
98¢
1h
-0.7pp
24h
+48.4pp
24h Vol
$1.2K
Liquidity
$9.9K
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Apr 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires Apr 30, 2026 — dispute window active.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 4 factors- 01Price move
Up 48pp over 24h
Now 98¢; -0.7pp in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 0h.
- 03Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $9.9k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
- 04Resolution proximity
Expiry in 0h
Market resolves within 72 hours — the move likely reflects information about the resolution event itself rather than longer-horizon repricing. Verify the resolution source.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 0 hours.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Apr 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires Apr 30, 2026 — dispute window active.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 20:00ResolveHIGH
Market resolves in 0.4h
- 19:34SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 0h.
Price movement
+48.4pp over the last 24h, now 98¢.
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Related Markets
6- 11¢-22.0
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?
Other · Vol $1.5M
- 1¢-98.7
Over $3M committed to the Printr public sale?
Other · Vol $1.2M
- 96¢+6.1
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?
Other · Vol $1.2M
- 32¢-8.0
Will SC Braga win on 2026-04-30?
Other · Vol $1.1M
- 31¢0.0
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-04-30?
Other · Vol $1.1M
- 49¢-10.0
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1.5B one day after launch?
Other · Vol $1.1M
Market Description
This market will resolve to "Up" if the official Dow Jones Industrial Average closing price for Dow Jones (DJIA) on Thursday, April 30, 2026 is higher than the official Dow Jones Industrial Average closing price for DJIA on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the official Dow Jones Industrial Average closing price for Dow Jones (DJIA) on Thursday, April 30, 2026 is lower than the official Dow Jones Industrial Average closing price for DJIA on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Note that all figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. If DJIA does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. If either of the relevant days are shortened (for example, due to a market holiday schedule), the official closing price published by Dow Jones Industrial Average for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If either of the relevant days have no official closing price (for example, due to a trading halt into the market close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is the Wall Street Journal, specifically the Close values published by the WSJ under "Historical Prices". US: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks EMEA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/emea ASIA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/asia
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.