UnclassifiedExpires Apr 30, 2026
Creator

Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on April 30?

Probability

98¢

1h

-0.7pp

24h

+48.4pp

24h Vol

$1.2K

Liquidity

$9.9K

Resolution & Risk

HIGH risk
End date
Apr 30, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
Wall Street Journal
Type
News consensus
Market type
Binary
  • Market expires Apr 30, 2026 — dispute window active.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
Apr 29, 2026, 13:00Apr 30, 2026, 19:34
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 4 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Up 48pp over 24h

    Now 98¢; -0.7pp in the last hour.

  • 02
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 0h.

  • 03
    Liquidity

    Thin liquidity

    Only $9.9k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

  • 04
    Resolution proximity

    Expiry in 0h

    Market resolves within 72 hours — the move likely reflects information about the resolution event itself rather than longer-horizon repricing. Verify the resolution source.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
  • Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 0 hours.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 20:00Resolve

    Market resolves in 0.4h

    HIGH
  • 19:34Signal

    Resolution risk

    Expires in 0h.

    LOW

Price movement

+48.4pp over the last 24h, now 98¢.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the official Dow Jones Industrial Average closing price for Dow Jones (DJIA) on Thursday, April 30, 2026 is higher than the official Dow Jones Industrial Average closing price for DJIA on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the official Dow Jones Industrial Average closing price for Dow Jones (DJIA) on Thursday, April 30, 2026 is lower than the official Dow Jones Industrial Average closing price for DJIA on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Note that all figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. If DJIA does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. If either of the relevant days are shortened (for example, due to a market holiday schedule), the official closing price published by Dow Jones Industrial Average for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If either of the relevant days have no official closing price (for example, due to a trading halt into the market close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is the Wall Street Journal, specifically the Close values published by the WSJ under "Historical Prices". US: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks EMEA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/emea ASIA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/asia

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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