Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from April 21 to April 28, 2026?
Probability
21¢
1h
-0.8pp
24h
-0.9pp
24h Vol
$1.6K
Liquidity
$916.04
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 86.2h
- 01:47SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 86h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 01:46PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.0pp
to 21¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -12.0pp
to 18¢
- 23:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.8pp
to 18¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.9pp
to 18¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.8pp
to 26¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.4pp
to 21¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.5pp
to 27¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.6pp
to 25¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.5pp
to 22¢
- 10:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 21¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.3pp
to 24¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -25.6pp
to 15¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.2pp
to 20¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 22¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.7pp
to 22¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 22¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 13.2pp
to 21¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.8pp
to 20¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 13.8pp
to 20¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 12.8pp
to 20¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.6pp
to 18¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.2pp
to 17¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 16.6pp
to 18¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the number of times Donald Trump (@realDonaldTrump), posts on Truth Social between April 21, 12:00 PM ET and April 28, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, Truth Social itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Apr 28, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrumpAmbiguous wording
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (6.9¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).