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PoliticsMulti-outcomeExpires May 1, 2026

Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from April 24 to May 1, 2026?

Probability

27¢

1h

+6.5pp

24h

+3.0pp

24h Vol

$175.70

Liquidity

$921.57

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
Apr 21, 2026, 06:00Apr 25, 2026, 12:27
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  1. 1

    Up 3pp over 24h

    Now 27¢; +6.5pp in the last hour.

  2. 2

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 148h with open resolution ambiguity.

  3. 3

    Wide spread — 19.0¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

AI prose summary

 

Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice
  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 147.5h

    LOW
  • 12:27Signal

    Signal · Resolution risk

    Expires in 148h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW
  • 12:27Price

    Probability up 6.0pp

    to 26¢

    MEDIUM
  • 09:00Price

    Probability up 8.0pp

    to 26¢

    MEDIUM
  • 08:00Price

    Probability down -5.5pp

    to 13¢

    MEDIUM
  • 06:00Price

    Probability up 4.0pp

    to 19¢

    MEDIUM
  • 05:00Price

    Probability up 4.5pp

    to 20¢

    MEDIUM
  • 03:00Price

    Probability up 13.0pp

    to 27¢

    MEDIUM
  • 02:00Price

    Probability up 5.5pp

    to 19¢

    MEDIUM
  • 00:00Price

    Probability up 18.0pp

    to 32¢

    MEDIUM
  • 23:00Price

    Probability up 6.0pp

    to 21¢

    MEDIUM
  • 21:00Price

    Probability up 14.5pp

    to 28¢

    MEDIUM
  • 20:00Price

    Probability up 11.0pp

    to 28¢

    MEDIUM
  • 18:00Price

    Probability up 11.0pp

    to 27¢

    MEDIUM
  • 16:00Price

    Probability up 18.0pp

    to 35¢

    MEDIUM
  • 14:00Price

    Probability up 4.5pp

    to 20¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 13.0pp

    to 28¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 7.5pp

    to 24¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 7.0pp

    to 25¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -6.5pp

    to 17¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -6.5pp

    to 19¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -4.5pp

    to 21¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -6.0pp

    to 22¢

    MEDIUM
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventDonald Trump # Truth Social posts April 24 - May 1, 2026?
Category · Politics

Market Description

This market will resolve according to the number of times Donald Trump (@realDonaldTrump), posts on Truth Social between April 24, 12:00 PM ET and May 1, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, Truth Social itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
May 1, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrumpAmbiguous wording
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
  • Wide spread (19.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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