TechMulti-outcomeExpires Jun 1, 2026
Creator

Will Elon Musk post 620-639 tweets in May 2026?

Probability

1¢

1h

-0.1pp

24h

-3.1pp

24h Vol

$446.18

Liquidity

$2.1K

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Jun 1, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
Polymarket Post Counter (tracker)
Link
xtracker.polymarket.com
Type
Tracker / counter
Confidence
extracted · high
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.8pp 7d
Apr 27, 2026, 10:00May 4, 2026, 09:00
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Down 3pp over 24h

    Now 1¢; -0.1pp in the last hour.

  • 02
    Liquidity

    Thin liquidity

    Only $2.1k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
  • Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
  • Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 667.0h

    LOW

Price movement

-3.1pp over the last 24h, now 1¢.

Biggest hourly move: +3.6pp at 1d ago (to 4¢).

Show 2 hourly moves
  • 1d ago · +3.6pp → 4¢
  • 1d ago · +3.6pp → 4¢
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feedBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventElon Musk musk # tweets in May 2026?
Category · Tech

Market Description

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X during the month of May 2026. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.

Top Holders

15 wallets
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