Will Max Verstappen get pole position at the 2026 F1 Dutch Grand Prix?
Probability
0¢
1h
-0.1pp
24h
-5.7pp
24h Vol
$4.7K
Liquidity
$202.2K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
YES price is near 0¢ but the market has not been officially resolved.
Treat as effectively priced-out, not settled. The market is still live until expiry.
Methodology explanation
Review-only opportunity
No paper intent is emitted from the public opportunity row. Paper action appears only after the paper governor evaluates the row.
Why this market is in review
signalMomentum / follow-through
55% source confidence on this opportunity row.
Paper-only action
paper-onlyReview-only opportunity
read_only_explanation; no live order, no network send, no raw secrets.
Risk / veto readback
reviewConfidence below paper gate
Paper policy needs at least 72% confidence before any paper intent can be proposed.
Source evidence
source4 mapped surfaces
283/283 sources runtime-backed; all registered sources are runtime-backed; live authority remains false.
Signals
- Momentum / follow-throughclear
55% source confidence on this opportunity row.
Veto / blockers
- Confidence below paper gatewatch
Paper policy needs at least 72% confidence before any paper intent can be proposed.
Costs / sizing
- Research score
- Composite opportunity score before paper-governor costs and vetoes.
- Capacity
- Estimated research capacity, not an approved size.
- Liquidity
- Market liquidity visible on the opportunity row.
all registered sources are runtime-backed; live authority remains false; this card cites mapped surfaces only.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Aug 29, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primary
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Probability (last 7 days)
-49.7pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Price move
Down 6pp over 24h
Now 0¢; -0.1pp in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Momentum observation firing
Probability moved down 5.7pp in 24h with 0.0× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
What to track next
- Set an alert if probability recovers above 5¢ — that's where this move would be reversing.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Watch the next 6–24 hours: momentum observations historically extend on this kind of setup but pay spread on entry. Compare to /backtest for the rule's historical performance.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Aug 29, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primary
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Verification Brief
A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.
The price is pinned near a rail, but price is not settlement. Verify the official status before treating it as final.
Create trust-state alertVerification goal
Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.
What needs proof
Primary source
requiredConfirm the primary source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.
Current evidence: https://www.formula1.com/en/results/2026/races
Contract wording
requiredExtract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.
Price is not settlement
requiredVerify whether the market is officially resolved or merely pinned near 0¢/100¢.
Current evidence: 0¢ current price
Orrery verification task Will Max Verstappen get pole position at the 2026 F1 Dutch Grand Prix? State: Pinned near NO — price pinned not settled Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. 3. Price is not settlement: Verify whether the market is officially resolved or merely pinned near 0¢/100¢. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.
Orrery verification brief Will Max Verstappen get pole position at the 2026 F1 Dutch Grand Prix? State: price pinned not settled Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.
Market link goes in reply
A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.
Sources
0
Criteria covered
0
Reviewed
0
Awaiting review
0
Submit a source mapped to a criterion
Recent source checks
Pilot audit summary
Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- Aug 29, 14:00 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 162.7h
- 19:16SignalMEDIUM
Momentum down
Probability moved down 5.7pp in 24h with 0.0× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
Price movement
-5.7pp over the last 24h, now 0¢.
Biggest hourly move: -46.0pp at 23:00 (to 4¢).
Show top 8 of 46 hourly moves
- 15:00 · -45.4pp → 2¢
- 06:00 · -45.1pp → 3¢
- 04:00 · -45.0pp → 4¢
- 03:00 · -45.5pp → 5¢
- 02:00 · -46.0pp → 4¢
- 00:00 · -45.5pp → 5¢
- 23:00 · -46.0pp → 4¢
- 21:00 · -45.5pp → 5¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Related Markets
13- 19¢+10.5
Will Lewis Hamilton get pole position at the 2026 F1 Dutch Grand Prix?
Sports · Vol $3.3K
- 50¢0.0
Will any other driver get pole position at the 2026 F1 Dutch Grand Prix?
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 50¢0.0
Will Driver A get pole position at the 2026 F1 Dutch Grand Prix?
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 50¢0.0
Will Driver B get pole position at the 2026 F1 Dutch Grand Prix?
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 50¢0.0
Will Driver C get pole position at the 2026 F1 Dutch Grand Prix?
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 50¢0.0
Will Driver D get pole position at the 2026 F1 Dutch Grand Prix?
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 50¢0.0
Will Driver E get pole position at the 2026 F1 Dutch Grand Prix?
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 77¢+18.0
Will Bayern Munich win on 2026-08-22?
Sports · Vol $2.5M
- 18¢0.0
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs Spirit (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffs
Sports · Vol $2.4M
- 0¢0.0
Dota 2: BoomBoys vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner
Sports · Vol $1.8M
- 100¢+36.4
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-08-22?
Sports · Vol $1.7M
- 0¢-48.4
Commanders vs. Lions
Sports · Vol $610.9K
- 7¢-21.0
Cincinnati Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Arthur Fils
Sports · Vol $592.7K
Market Description
This is a polymarket on the driver who achieves pole position at the 2026 F1 Dutch Grand Prix, scheduled for Aug 22, 2026. If the 2026 F1 Dutch Grand Prix is canceled or rescheduled to a date after Aug 29, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve in favor of the driver who is officially recognized by Formula 1 as having set the fastest time during the qualifying session for the 2026 F1 Dutch Grand Prix. The market will be settled based on the FIA's official qualifying results, regardless of any subsequent penalties, disqualifications, or changes to the starting grid. For example, if a driver sets the fastest qualifying time but later receives a grid penalty or is moved down the starting order, the market will still resolve to “Yes” for that driver. The resolution source will be the official Formula 1 website and a consensus of credible sports news reporting.
Why this category?
confidence: mediumCategory
Source
Matched term
f1Reason
Question text contains "f1" — matched the Sports keyword rule.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Max Verstappen get pole position at the 2026 F1 Dutch Grand Prix?"?
As of Sat, 22 Aug 2026 19:16:46 GMT, YES is priced at 0% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -5.7pp in the last 24 hours, -0.1pp in the last hour, and -49.7pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Aug 29, 2026 (2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://www.formula1.com/en/results/2026/races.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.formula1.com/en/results/2026/races. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$4.7K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $5.3K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $202.2K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.4¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.