Will Pierre Gasly get pole position at the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?
Probability
5¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+4.4pp
24h Vol
$5.00
Liquidity
$183.11
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 8, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primary
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (9.9¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
-42.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Up 4pp over 24h
Now 5¢; flat in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk signal firing
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
- 03Spread cost
Wide spread — 9.9¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 8, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primary
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (9.9¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 149.1h
- 15:23SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
Price movement
+4.4pp over the last 24h, now 5¢.
Biggest hourly move: -48.9pp at 1d ago (to 1¢).
Show top 8 of 45 hourly moves
- 09:00 · -44.5pp → 5¢
- 07:00 · -44.5pp → 5¢
- 05:00 · -44.5pp → 5¢
- 04:00 · -44.5pp → 5¢
- 01:00 · -44.5pp → 5¢
- 16:00 · -45.3pp → 4¢
- 1d ago · -48.9pp → 1¢
- 1d ago · -48.4pp → 1¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This is a polymarket on the driver who achieves pole position at the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix, scheduled for May 1, 2026. If the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix is canceled or rescheduled to a date after May 8, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve in favor of the driver who is officially recognized by Formula 1 as having set the fastest time during the qualifying session for the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix. The market will be settled based on the FIA's official qualifying results, regardless of any subsequent penalties, disqualifications, or changes to the starting grid. For example, if a driver sets the fastest qualifying time but later receives a grid penalty or is moved down the starting order, the market will still resolve to “Yes” for that driver. The resolution source will be the official Formula 1 website and a consensus of credible sports news reporting.
Alerts
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