Fed Rate Hike by June 2026 Meeting?
Probability
4¢
1h
-0.1pp
24h
-0.2pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$19.8K
Probability (last 7 days)
-0.1pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 5453h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Thin liquidity
Only $19.8k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5453.0h
- 18:57SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 5453h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
-0.2pp over the last 24h, now 4¢.
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate hikes will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 9, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Federal ReserveOfficial government sourceextracted · highfederalreserve.gov
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
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