Will Alphabet (GOOGL) beat quarterly earnings?
Probability
94¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.8pp
24h Vol
$1.1K
Liquidity
$5.2K
Probability (last 7 days)
+5.7pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 104.8h
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.1pp
to 94¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.1pp
to 94¢
- 19:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.1pp
to 94¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.8pp
to 93¢
- 13:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 94¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.8pp
to 93¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 93¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.4pp
to 93¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.3pp
to 93¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.8pp
to 91¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.8pp
to 91¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 91¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.6pp
to 92¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.6pp
to 92¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 91¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.6pp
to 96¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.6pp
to 96¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.3pp
to 96¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.6pp
to 96¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 96¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.6pp
to 96¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.3pp
to 97¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.8pp
to 97¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.3pp
to 97¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
Market Description
As of market creation, Alphabet is estimated to release earnings on April 29, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Alphabet's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $2.66 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Alphabet reports GAAP EPS greater than $2.66 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If Alphabet releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”. If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024). Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for GAAP EPS. Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS. Note: For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS. Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated. Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Apr 29, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- https://seekingalpha.com/Ambiguous wording
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
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