CryptoExpires Apr 29, 2026

Kashiwa Reysol vs. FC Tōkyō: O/U 4.5

Probability

1h

-2.5pp

24h

-3.0pp

24h Vol

$4.44

Liquidity

$1.0K

Probability (last 7 days)

-25.5pp 7d
Apr 22, 2026, 08:00Apr 29, 2026, 07:25
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 4 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Down 3pp over 24h

    Now 9¢; -2.5pp in the last hour.

  • 02
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

  • 03
    Liquidity

    Thin liquidity

    Only $1.0k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

  • 04
    Resolution proximity

    Past expiry — awaiting resolution

    Market is past its end date. Any price move now is a settlement / dispute artefact, not new information.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 07:25Signal

    Resolution risk

    Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

    LOW
  • 07:00Resolve

    Market resolved 0h ago

    HIGH

Price movement

-3.0pp over the last 24h, now 9¢.

Biggest hourly move: -22.5pp at 4d ago (to 13¢).

Show top 8 of 42 hourly moves
  • 2d ago · -22.0pp → 13¢
  • 3d ago · -22.0pp → 13¢
  • 3d ago · -22.0pp → 13¢
  • 3d ago · -22.0pp → 13¢
  • 3d ago · -22.0pp → 13¢
  • 3d ago · -22.0pp → 13¢
  • 4d ago · -22.5pp → 13¢
  • 4d ago · -22.5pp → 13¢
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

In the upcoming J1 100 Year Vision League game between Kashiwa Reysol and FC Tōkyō, scheduled for April 29 at 3:00 AM ET: This market will resolve to "Over" if Kashiwa Reysol and FC Tōkyō combine to score 5 or more goals in this game. If the combined total is less than 5, this market will resolve to "Under". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. If the game is started but not completed, this market will resolve according to the official final score published on jleague.jp. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Resolution & Risk

HIGH risk
End date
Apr 29, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
official statistics
Type
Official statistics
Market type
Binary
  • Market expires Apr 29, 2026 — dispute window active.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
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Top Holders

2 wallets