Kash Patel out by June 30?
Probability
55¢
1h
-1.5pp
24h
-5.5pp
24h Vol
$8.4K
Liquidity
$30.9K
Probability (last 7 days)
+2.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Down 6pp over 24h
Now 55¢; -1.5pp in the last hour.
- 2
Momentum signal firing
Probability moved down 5.5pp in 24h with 0.3× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- 3
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 1569h with open resolution ambiguity.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 1569.1h
- 14:54SignalMEDIUM
Signal · Momentum down
Probability moved down 5.5pp in 24h with 0.3× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- 14:54SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 1569h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 56¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 57¢
- 07:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 60¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 59¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 56¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 56¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 55¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 56¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 54¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 54¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 61¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.0pp
to 61¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 61¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.5pp
to 60¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 61¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 60¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.5pp
to 56¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.0pp
to 56¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -17.5pp
to 55¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.5pp
to 53¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.0pp
to 54¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.0pp
to 56¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -17.5pp
to 56¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -12.5pp
to 56¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -13.0pp
to 56¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 55¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.5pp
to 55¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
Related Markets
9- 54¢-6.0pp
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-25?
Other · Vol $3.5M
- 2¢-0.5pp
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Other · Vol $1.4M
- 100¢+59.0pp
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winner
Other · Vol $1.4M
- 54¢-4.0pp
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-04-25?
Other · Vol $1.2M
- 0¢-35.4pp
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend
Other · Vol $1.1M
- 92¢+27.0pp
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-25?
Other · Vol $950.9K
Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kash Patel ceases to be the Director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation for any period of by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Patel's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).
Top Holders
20 wallets- Rapid-Accident8.4K
- Hasty-Chain6.8K
- Smoggy-Antique5.1K
- Measly-Gelatin4.0K
- Wiry-Biosphere2.7K
- Miserly-Age5.4K
- Fake-Polyester4.1K
- Tall-Pike3.4K
- Wobbly-Chain2.9K
- Indelible-Pinecone1.9K