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OtherExpires Jun 30, 2026

Kash Patel out by June 30?

Probability

55¢

1h

-1.5pp

24h

-5.5pp

24h Vol

$8.4K

Liquidity

$30.9K

Probability (last 7 days)

+2.5pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 15:00Apr 25, 2026, 14:54
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  1. 1

    Down 6pp over 24h

    Now 55¢; -1.5pp in the last hour.

  2. 2

    Momentum signal firing

    Probability moved down 5.5pp in 24h with 0.3× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

  3. 3

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 1569h with open resolution ambiguity.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

AI prose summary

 

Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice
  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 1569.1h

    LOW
  • 14:54Signal

    Signal · Momentum down

    Probability moved down 5.5pp in 24h with 0.3× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

    MEDIUM
  • 14:54Signal

    Signal · Resolution risk

    Expires in 1569h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW
  • 14:00Price

    Probability down -4.0pp

    to 56¢

    MEDIUM
  • 09:00Price

    Probability down -3.0pp

    to 57¢

    MEDIUM
  • 07:00Price

    Probability down -3.0pp

    to 60¢

    MEDIUM
  • 05:00Price

    Probability down -3.0pp

    to 59¢

    MEDIUM
  • 02:00Price

    Probability down -3.5pp

    to 56¢

    MEDIUM
  • 00:00Price

    Probability down -4.0pp

    to 56¢

    MEDIUM
  • 22:00Price

    Probability down -5.5pp

    to 55¢

    MEDIUM
  • 21:00Price

    Probability down -4.5pp

    to 56¢

    MEDIUM
  • 20:00Price

    Probability down -4.5pp

    to 54¢

    MEDIUM
  • 18:00Price

    Probability down -5.5pp

    to 54¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 6.0pp

    to 61¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 8.0pp

    to 61¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 4.0pp

    to 61¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 7.5pp

    to 60¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -3.0pp

    to 61¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -4.0pp

    to 60¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -7.5pp

    to 56¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -9.0pp

    to 56¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -17.5pp

    to 55¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -10.5pp

    to 53¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -8.0pp

    to 54¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -8.0pp

    to 56¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -17.5pp

    to 56¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -12.5pp

    to 56¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -13.0pp

    to 56¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -4.0pp

    to 55¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -8.5pp

    to 55¢

    MEDIUM
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kash Patel ceases to be the Director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation for any period of by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Patel's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Jun 30, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Not specified in metadata
Market type
Binary
  • No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).