Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by June 30?
Probability
96¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+19.4pp
24h Vol
$3.7K
Liquidity
$31.7K
Probability (last 7 days)
+23.4pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 1577.1h
- 06:55SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 1577h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.3pp
to 96¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.2pp
to 96¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.6pp
to 97¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.8pp
to 97¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.8pp
to 97¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.6pp
to 97¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.3pp
to 97¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.8pp
to 97¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.0pp
to 97¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.6pp
to 99¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.6pp
to 98¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -13.5pp
to 70¢
- 13:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.5pp
to 73¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -12.0pp
to 71¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -14.5pp
to 73¢
- 10:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.5pp
to 70¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 75¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.0pp
to 79¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.0pp
to 83¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.0pp
to 82¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.5pp
to 83¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.5pp
to 82¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.5pp
to 82¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 13.0pp
to 84¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 13.5pp
to 84¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 13.0pp
to 84¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.5pp
to 84¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.5pp
to 84¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If Kevin Warsh is formally nominated for the role, and his nomination is then formally withdrawn, or if the Senate rejects the nomination, this market will immediately resolve to “No”. The Senate must confirm this nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve for this market to resolve to "Yes". Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).