Will Khamenei post 5-9 posts from April 21 to April 28, 2026?
Probability
30¢
1h
-3.0pp
24h
-2.5pp
24h Vol
$61.19
Liquidity
$47.09
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Down 3pp over 24h
Now 30¢; -3.0pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 72h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 41.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 72.2h
- 15:49SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 72h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 15:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 34¢
- 13:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 34¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 34¢
- 10:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 33¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 33¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 33¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 33¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 33¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 33¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 33¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 33¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 33¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 33¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 33¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 32¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 25¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.5pp
to 27¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.5pp
to 29¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -24.0pp
to 26¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 30¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 29¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 30¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 28¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 29¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 28¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 28¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 28¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between April 21, 12:00 PM ET and April 28, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Apr 28, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- https://x.com/khamenei_irAmbiguous wording
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (41.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).