Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from May 8 to May 15, 2026?
Probability
90¢
1h
+33.0pp
24h
-8.8pp
24h Vol
$140.21
Liquidity
$80.02
Canonical status
confidence: mediumSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Liquidity is below $1,000 — price discovery is unreliable.
The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 15, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- PrimaryPolymarket Post Counter (tracker)TypeTracker / counterConfidenceextracted · high
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Market expires May 15, 2026 — dispute window active.
- Wide spread (18.8¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
+41.6pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Down 9pp over 24h
Now 90¢; +33.0pp in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Expires in 27h. Spread is extremely wide.
- 03Spread cost
Wide spread — 18.8¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 27 hours.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 15, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- PrimaryPolymarket Post Counter (tracker)TypeTracker / counterConfidenceextracted · high
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Market expires May 15, 2026 — dispute window active.
- Wide spread (18.8¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- May 15, 16:00 UTCScheduled resolutionHIGH
Market resolves in 26.9h
- 13:07SignalMEDIUM
Resolution risk
Expires in 27h. Spread is extremely wide.
Price movement
-8.8pp over the last 24h, now 90¢.
Biggest hourly move: +47.5pp at May 11, 07:00 UTC (to 91¢).
Show top 8 of 68 hourly moves
- 11:00 · +37.5pp → 99¢
- May 11, 09:00 UTC · +44.0pp → 87¢
- May 11, 07:00 UTC · +47.5pp → 91¢
- May 11, 06:00 UTC · +37.0pp → 86¢
- May 10, 14:00 UTC · +38.0pp → 91¢
- May 10, 09:00 UTC · +37.5pp → 92¢
- May 10, 08:00 UTC · +40.0pp → 91¢
- May 10, 05:00 UTC · +39.0pp → 84¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Related Markets
3Market Description
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between May 8, 12:00 PM ET and May 15, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Why this category?
confidence: lowCategory
Source
Reason
No override, sports marker, rule, or upstream hint matched. Market is unclassified — the keyword rules need an entry for this topic.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from May 8 to May 15, 2026?"?
As of Thu, 14 May 2026 13:07:22 GMT, YES is priced at 90% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -8.8pp in the last 24 hours, +33.0pp in the last hour, and +41.6pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by May 15, 2026 (2026-05-15T16:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://x.com/khamenei_ir.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from https://x.com/khamenei_ir. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$140.21 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $1.8K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $80.02. Spread between best bid and best ask: 18.8¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.