Ledger IPO closing market cap above $3B?
Probability
33¢
1h
-2.0pp
24h
+3.0pp
24h Vol
$100.00
Liquidity
$338.63
Probability (last 7 days)
-3.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 3pp over 24h
Now 33¢; -2.0pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 14771h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 28.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 14770.6h
- 18:25SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 14771h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
+4.0pp over the last 24h, now 34¢.
Biggest hourly move: -7.5pp at 2d ago (to 30¢).
Show all 19 hour-by-hour ticks
- 12:00 · +3.5pp → 35¢
- 11:00 · +3.5pp → 35¢
- 09:00 · +3.5pp → 35¢
- 08:00 · +3.5pp → 35¢
- 05:00 · +3.5pp → 35¢
- 00:00 · -5.0pp → 30¢
- 23:00 · -4.5pp → 30¢
- 21:00 · -4.0pp → 30¢
- 20:00 · -3.5pp → 30¢
- 19:00 · -3.0pp → 30¢
- 1d ago · -3.5pp → 31¢
- 2d ago · -6.0pp → 31¢
- 2d ago · -4.5pp → 31¢
- 2d ago · +5.0pp → 35¢
- 2d ago · +5.0pp → 35¢
- 2d ago · +4.0pp → 33¢
- 2d ago · -4.0pp → 31¢
- 2d ago · -7.5pp → 30¢
- 2d ago · +5.0pp → 42¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the official closing price for Ledger's market capitalization on its first trading day is above the value specified in the title. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Ledger’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jan 1, 2028
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- to the official closing price of the abbreviated sessionAmbiguous wordingextracted · low
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (28.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.