GeopoliticsExpires May 21, 2026

Games Total: O/U 4.5

Probability

37¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

+1.5pp

24h Vol

$0.00

Liquidity

$2.3K

Probability (last 7 days)

+3.5pp 7d
Apr 19, 2026, 01:00Apr 25, 2026, 18:27
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  1. 1

    Up 2pp over 24h

    Now 37¢; flat in the last hour.

  2. 2

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 621h with open resolution ambiguity.

  3. 3

    Wide spread — 64.0¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 620.5h

    LOW
  • 18:28Signal

    Resolution risk

    Expires in 621h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW

Price movement

+1.5pp over the last 24h, now 37¢.

Biggest hourly move: -7.5pp at 10:00 (to 36¢).

Show all 12 hour-by-hour ticks
  • 10:00 · -7.5pp → 36¢
  • 02:00 · +6.0pp → 36¢
  • 1d ago · +4.0pp → 37¢
  • 1d ago · +4.0pp → 37¢
  • 1d ago · +4.0pp → 37¢
  • 1d ago · +4.0pp → 37¢
  • 1d ago · +4.0pp → 37¢
  • 1d ago · +4.0pp → 37¢
  • 1d ago · +4.0pp → 37¢
  • 1d ago · +4.0pp → 37¢
  • 2d ago · +3.5pp → 37¢
  • 2d ago · +3.5pp → 37¢
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market refers to the LoL Upper bracket final match between JD Gaming and Anyone's Legend in the Esports World Cup China Qualifier Phase 2, initially scheduled for May 21 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Over" if JD Gaming and Anyone's Legend play 5 or more games in this series. If fewer than 5 games are played, this market will resolve to "Under". Games won by forfeit, disqualification, walkover, or default are counted towards the total, provided that the match is completed. If the match is canceled (not played at all for any reason), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's match forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match ends due to the clinching game being forfeited this will count as a completed match. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
May 21, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
consensus of credible reportingNews consensus
gol.gg
Market type
Binary
  • Wide spread (64.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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Top Holders

No holder data from the Data API.