OtherExpires Dec 31, 2026

Megan Thee Stallion & Klay Thompson split in 2026?

Probability

98¢

1h

+19.0pp

24h

+18.5pp

24h Vol

$4.8K

Liquidity

$3.0K

Probability (last 7 days)

+65.0pp 7d
Apr 19, 2026, 05:00Apr 25, 2026, 20:52
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 4 factors
  1. 1

    Up 19pp over 24h

    Now 98¢; +19.0pp in the last hour.

  2. 2

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 5979h with open resolution ambiguity.

  3. 3

    Wide spread — 5.0¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

  4. 4

    UMA status: proposed

    An open UMA dispute or pending oracle vote can move price independently of underlying odds. Wait for settlement before treating the line as the market view.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
  • Wait for the UMA proposal to settle (current status: proposed) — price moves now reflect oracle dynamics, not odds.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 5979.1h

    LOW
  • 20:52Signal

    Resolution risk

    Expires in 5979h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW

Price movement

+19.0pp over the last 24h, now 98¢.

Biggest hourly move: +33.5pp at 2d ago (to 80¢).

Show all 35 hour-by-hour ticks
  • 20:00 · +11.5pp → 79¢
  • 19:00 · +11.5pp → 79¢
  • 17:00 · +11.5pp → 79¢
  • 15:00 · +15.5pp → 80¢
  • 14:00 · +12.0pp → 79¢
  • 12:00 · +12.0pp → 79¢
  • 11:00 · +12.0pp → 79¢
  • 09:00 · +12.0pp → 79¢
  • 08:00 · +12.0pp → 79¢
  • 06:00 · +15.0pp → 79¢
  • 05:00 · +15.5pp → 79¢
  • 03:00 · +15.5pp → 79¢
  • 02:00 · +16.0pp → 79¢
  • 00:00 · +16.0pp → 79¢
  • 23:00 · +16.0pp → 79¢
  • 21:00 · +14.5pp → 79¢
  • 1d ago · +16.0pp → 79¢
  • 1d ago · +14.0pp → 79¢
  • 1d ago · +17.5pp → 81¢
  • 1d ago · +24.5pp → 81¢
  • 1d ago · +24.5pp → 80¢
  • 1d ago · +25.0pp → 80¢
  • 1d ago · +21.5pp → 80¢
  • 1d ago · +16.0pp → 80¢
  • 2d ago · +30.0pp → 80¢
  • 2d ago · +33.0pp → 80¢
  • 2d ago · +33.5pp → 80¢
  • 2d ago · +3.5pp → 57¢
  • 2d ago · +4.5pp → 59¢
  • 2d ago · +25.5pp → 59¢
  • 2d ago · +26.0pp → 60¢
  • 2d ago · +26.0pp → 60¢
  • 2d ago · +25.0pp → 59¢
  • 2d ago · +26.0pp → 59¢
  • 2d ago · +26.5pp → 59¢
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Megan Thee Stallion and/or Klay Thompson announce their intention to legally separate or break up between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET of their intention to separate or otherwise break up will be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the separation or breakup later actually occurs, or whether the actual separation or breakup occurs outside of the timeframe of this market. The resolution source will be statements from Megan Thee Stallion, Klay Thompson, and/or their representatives, however a definitive consensus of credible media reporting may be considered.

Resolution & Risk

MEDIUM risk
End date
Dec 31, 2026
UMA status
proposed
Resolution source

Not stated explicitly in the metadata. Read the full market rules below before treating any move as a resolved fact.

Market type
Binary
  • UMA status: proposed
  • No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
  • Wide spread (5.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.