SportsExpires May 7, 2026
Creator

Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Colorado Rockies vs. Cincinnati Reds

Probability

100¢

1h

+49.5pp

24h

+46.0pp

24h Vol

$1.4K

Liquidity

$23.6K

Resolution & Risk

MEDIUM risk
End date
May 7, 2026
UMA status
proposed
Resolution source
Primary
MLB.com
Type
Official sports result
Market type
Binary
  • UMA status: proposed
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
Apr 24, 2026, 14:00Apr 30, 2026, 17:09
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 4 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Up 46pp over 24h

    Now 100¢; +49.5pp in the last hour.

  • 02
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.

  • 03
    Liquidity

    Thin liquidity

    Only $23.6k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

  • 04
    UMA status

    UMA status: proposed

    An open UMA dispute or pending oracle vote can move price independently of underlying odds. Wait for settlement before treating the line as the market view.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
  • Wait for the UMA proposal to settle (current status: proposed) — price moves now reflect oracle dynamics, not odds.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 167.5h

    LOW
  • 17:10Signal

    Resolution risk

    UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.

    LOW

Price movement

+46.0pp over the last 24h, now 100¢.

Biggest hourly move: +48.0pp at 17:00 (to 100¢).

Show top 8 of 29 hourly moves
  • 17:00 · +48.0pp → 100¢
  • 13:00 · -6.0pp → 50¢
  • 11:00 · -6.0pp → 50¢
  • 23:00 · +6.0pp → 54¢
  • 2d ago · -14.0pp → 34¢
  • 2d ago · -14.0pp → 34¢
  • 3d ago · +8.0pp → 56¢
  • 3d ago · +8.0pp → 56¢
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

In the upcoming MLB game between the Colorado Rockies and Cincinnati Reds, scheduled for April 30 at 12:40 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one run is scored in the 1st inning by either the Colorado Rockies or Cincinnati Reds. This market will resolve to "No" if no runs are scored in the 1st inning by either team. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Alerts

¢
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