Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Probability
100¢
1h
+52.4pp
24h
+51.9pp
24h Vol
$2.6K
Liquidity
$81.5K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Upstream UMA resolution status is 'proposed'.
Resolution is awaiting UMA confirmation. Price may move sharply when it settles.
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- May 13, 2026
- UMA status
- proposed
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- UMA status: proposed
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Up 52pp over 24h
Now 100¢; +52.4pp in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Momentum signal firing
Probability moved up 51.9pp in 24h with 0.0× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- 03Active signal
Resolution-risk signal firing
UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Wait for the UMA proposal to settle (current status: proposed) — price moves now reflect oracle dynamics, not odds.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- May 13, 2026
- UMA status
- proposed
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- UMA status: proposed
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 167.0h
- 18:13SignalHIGH
Momentum up
Probability moved up 51.9pp in 24h with 0.0× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- 18:13SignalLOW
Resolution risk
UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.
Price movement
+51.9pp over the last 24h, now 100¢.
Biggest hourly move: +56.0pp at 18:13 (to 100¢).
Show top 8 of 33 hourly moves
- 18:13 · +56.0pp → 100¢
- 01:00 · +11.5pp → 55¢
- 23:00 · +12.0pp → 55¢
- 1d ago · +11.5pp → 55¢
- 1d ago · +10.5pp → 54¢
- 1d ago · +10.5pp → 54¢
- 2d ago · +11.5pp → 55¢
- 2d ago · +11.0pp → 54¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
In the upcoming MLB game between the Milwaukee Brewers and St. Louis Cardinals, scheduled for May 6 at 1:15 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one run is scored in the 1st inning by either the Milwaukee Brewers or St. Louis Cardinals. This market will resolve to "No" if no runs are scored in the 1st inning by either team. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
brewersReason
Question text matched the sports hard-marker "brewers" — runs before rules to catch upstream mis-tagging.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals"?
As of Wed, 06 May 2026 18:13:34 GMT, YES is priced at 100% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +51.9pp in the last 24 hours, +52.4pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by May 13, 2026 (2026-05-13T17:15:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://www.mlb.com/scores.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.mlb.com/scores. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$2.6K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $2.6K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $81.5K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.1¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.
