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WeatherExpires Apr 26, 2026

Spread: San Jose Earthquakes (-1.5)

Probability

19¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

+0.0pp

24h Vol

$368.28

Liquidity

$37.9K

Probability (last 7 days)

+2.0pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 18:00Apr 25, 2026, 16:38
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  1. 1

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 8h with open resolution ambiguity.

  2. 2

    Expiry in 8h

    Market resolves within 72 hours — the move likely reflects information about the resolution event itself rather than longer-horizon repricing. Verify the resolution source.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
  • Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 8 hours.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

AI prose summary

Loading prose summary — see the structured breakdown above.

Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice
  • 00:30Resolve

    Market resolves in 7.9h

    HIGH
  • 16:38Signal

    Signal · Resolution risk

    Expires in 8h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW
  • 16:38Price

    Probability up 4.5pp

    to 19¢

    MEDIUM
  • 15:00Price

    Probability up 4.5pp

    to 19¢

    MEDIUM
  • 14:00Price

    Probability up 4.0pp

    to 19¢

    MEDIUM
  • 12:00Price

    Probability up 4.5pp

    to 18¢

    MEDIUM
  • 11:00Price

    Probability up 3.0pp

    to 18¢

    MEDIUM
  • 08:00Price

    Probability up 4.5pp

    to 19¢

    MEDIUM
  • 06:00Price

    Probability up 4.0pp

    to 19¢

    MEDIUM
  • 05:00Price

    Probability up 4.0pp

    to 19¢

    MEDIUM
  • 03:00Price

    Probability up 3.5pp

    to 18¢

    MEDIUM
  • 01:00Price

    Probability up 4.0pp

    to 19¢

    MEDIUM
  • 23:00Price

    Probability up 4.5pp

    to 18¢

    MEDIUM
  • 21:00Price

    Probability up 5.0pp

    to 19¢

    MEDIUM
  • 18:00Price

    Probability up 6.0pp

    to 18¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 5.0pp

    to 17¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 6.0pp

    to 18¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 6.0pp

    to 18¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 3.0pp

    to 17¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 6.0pp

    to 17¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 5.5pp

    to 17¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 4.5pp

    to 17¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 4.0pp

    to 17¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 3.5pp

    to 18¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 3.0pp

    to 18¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 5.0pp

    to 18¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 4.0pp

    to 18¢

    MEDIUM
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

In the upcoming MLS game, scheduled for April 25 at 8:30 PM ET: This market will resolve to "San Jose Earthquakes" if San Jose Earthquakes win the game by 2 or more goals. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "St. Louis City SC". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. This market will resolve according to the official final score published on mlssoccer.com. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Resolution & Risk

HIGH risk
End date
Apr 26, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
official statisticsOfficial statistics
mlssoccer.com
Market type
Binary
  • Market expires Apr 26, 2026 — dispute window active.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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