Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $345 end of April?
Probability
93¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-4.5pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$3.8K
Probability (last 7 days)
+3.4pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Down 4pp over 24h
Now 93¢; flat in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 125h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 11.8¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 125.2h
- 14:46SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 125h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 14:46PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.4pp
to 93¢
- 13:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.4pp
to 93¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 93¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.6pp
to 93¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.6pp
to 93¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.6pp
to 93¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.7pp
to 93¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.4pp
to 93¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.3pp
to 90¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.3pp
to 90¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.2pp
to 90¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.4pp
to 97¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.3pp
to 90¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.3pp
to 90¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.8pp
to 90¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.8pp
to 90¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.8pp
to 90¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.8pp
to 90¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.8pp
to 90¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.3pp
to 97¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.3pp
to 97¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.8pp
to 97¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.5pp
to 90¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.5pp
to 90¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.6pp
to 90¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.4pp
to 90¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.7pp
to 93¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.1pp
to 98¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) on the final trading day of April 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/history, published under "Historical Prices." In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Apr 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/history
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (11.8¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
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