Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $405 end of April?
Probability
100¢
1h
+0.5pp
24h
+45.5pp
24h Vol
$272.94
Liquidity
$12.7K
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Apr 30, 2026
- UMA status
- proposed
- Resolution source
- Primarysplit-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo FinanceTypeAmbiguous wording
- Market type
- Binary
- UMA status: proposed
- Market expires Apr 30, 2026 — dispute window active.
Probability (last 7 days)
+35.4pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Up 45pp over 24h
Now 100¢; +0.5pp in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk signal firing
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 03Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $12.7k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Wait for the UMA proposal to settle (current status: proposed) — price moves now reflect oracle dynamics, not odds.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Apr 30, 2026
- UMA status
- proposed
- Resolution source
- Primarysplit-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo FinanceTypeAmbiguous wording
- Market type
- Binary
- UMA status: proposed
- Market expires Apr 30, 2026 — dispute window active.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 23:04SignalHIGH
Resolution risk
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 20:00ResolveHIGH
Market resolved 3h ago
Price movement
+45.5pp over the last 24h, now 100¢.
Biggest hourly move: +42.5pp at 23:04 (to 100¢).
Show top 8 of 64 hourly moves
- 23:04 · +42.5pp → 100¢
- 22:00 · +41.5pp → 99¢
- 18:00 · -18.0pp → 41¢
- 17:00 · -30.5pp → 28¢
- 06:00 · -17.0pp → 59¢
- 03:00 · -17.5pp → 56¢
- 2d ago · -17.5pp → 50¢
- 3d ago · -20.0pp → 57¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Related Markets
1Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) on the final trading day of April 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/history, published under "Historical Prices." In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.
Alerts
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