NBA: SGA Award Parlay
Probability
44¢
1h
-0.5pp
24h
-21.0pp
24h Vol
$8.11
Liquidity
$1.5K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jul 1, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (58.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
-16.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Down 21pp over 24h
Now 44¢; -0.5pp in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
- 03Spread cost
Wide spread — 58.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jul 1, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (58.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 1277.6h
- 18:21SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
Price movement
-21.0pp over the last 24h, now 44¢.
Biggest hourly move: -23.0pp at 07:00 (to 45¢).
Show top 8 of 51 hourly moves
- 13:00 · -23.0pp → 45¢
- 11:00 · -23.0pp → 45¢
- 10:00 · -23.0pp → 45¢
- 09:00 · -23.0pp → 45¢
- 07:00 · -23.0pp → 45¢
- 2d ago · -19.0pp → 45¢
- 2d ago · -19.0pp → 45¢
- 2d ago · -19.0pp → 45¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is declared NBA MVP, NBA Finals MVP and the Oklahoma City Thunder are declared 2026 NBA Champions. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If at any point it becomes impossible for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to be awarded any of the above honors (e.g. the Oklahoma City Thunder are eliminated from the 2026 NBA Playoffs, player does not participate), this market will resolve to “No”. If the 2026 NBA Playoffs are cancelled, postponed after June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or the results of the 2026 Finals and listed awards have not been declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NBA (https://www.NBA.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
nba Reason
NBA — Sports.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "NBA: SGA Award Parlay"?
As of Fri, 08 May 2026 18:21:28 GMT, YES is priced at 44% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -21.0pp in the last 24 hours, -0.5pp in the last hour, and -16.5pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Jul 1, 2026 (2026-07-01T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$8.11 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $143.93. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $1.5K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 58.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.
