UnclassifiedExpires Apr 30, 2026

Nothing Ever Happens: April

Probability

98¢

1h

-0.1pp

24h

+1.3pp

24h Vol

$1.1K

Liquidity

$12.9K

Probability (last 7 days)

+21.9pp 7d
Apr 20, 2026, 13:00Apr 27, 2026, 08:55
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 4 factors
  • 1

    Up 1pp over 24h

    Now 98¢; -0.1pp in the last hour.

  • 2

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 63h with open resolution ambiguity.

  • 3

    Thin liquidity

    Only $12.9k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

  • 4

    Expiry in 63h

    Market resolves within 72 hours — the move likely reflects information about the resolution event itself rather than longer-horizon repricing. Verify the resolution source.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
  • Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 63 hours.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 63.1h

    HIGH
  • 08:56Signal

    Resolution risk

    Expires in 63h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW

Price movement

+1.4pp over the last 24h, now 98¢.

Biggest hourly move: +26.5pp at 3d ago (to 94¢).

Show top 8 of 42 hourly moves
  • 3d ago · +15.0pp → 96¢
  • 3d ago · +14.5pp → 95¢
  • 3d ago · +15.0pp → 93¢
  • 3d ago · +22.5pp → 93¢
  • 3d ago · +24.0pp → 94¢
  • 3d ago · +26.5pp → 94¢
  • 3d ago · +24.5pp → 94¢
  • 3d ago · +22.5pp → 95¢
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

6
Category · Other

Market Description

This market will resolve to “Something” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET: - Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal - WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hits ↑ $200 - Fed decides any change in April - US military action against Cuba - Anyone jailed over Epstein disclosures Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Nothing”. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH_APRIL_2.pdf

Resolution & Risk

HIGH risk
End date
Apr 30, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com
Link
polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com
Type
Source not classified
Confidence
extracted · low
Market type
Binary
  • Market expires Apr 30, 2026 — dispute window active.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.

Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket