Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of June 1 above $210?
Probability
95¢
1h
+2.0pp
24h
+16.0pp
24h Vol
$602.74
Liquidity
$11.6K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Resolves in 27h.
The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Jun 5, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primarysplit-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo FinanceTypeAmbiguous wording
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires Jun 5, 2026 — dispute window active.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Up 16pp over 24h
Now 95¢; +2.0pp in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Expires in 27h.
- 03Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $11.6k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 27 hours.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Jun 5, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primarysplit-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo FinanceTypeAmbiguous wording
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires Jun 5, 2026 — dispute window active.
Verification Brief
A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.
The market is still live, but settlement mechanics are becoming the most important thing to verify.
Verification goal
Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.
What needs proof
Primary source
requiredConfirm the primary ambiguous wording source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.
Current evidence: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/history
Contract wording
requiredExtract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.
Settlement state
requiredCheck whether the market is still live, expired-unresolved, UMA pending, disputed, or officially resolved.
Current evidence: Near expiry
Orrery verification task Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of June 1 above $210? State: Near expiry — live to resolution sensitive Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary ambiguous wording source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. 3. Settlement state: Check whether the market is still live, expired-unresolved, UMA pending, disputed, or officially resolved. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.
Orrery verification brief Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of June 1 above $210? State: live to resolution sensitive Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.
Market link goes in reply
A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.
Sources
0
Criteria covered
0
Reviewed
0
Awaiting review
0
Submit a source mapped to a criterion
Recent source checks
Pilot audit summary
Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- Jun 5, 20:00 UTCScheduled resolutionHIGH
Market resolves in 26.7h
- 17:20SignalMEDIUM
Resolution risk
Expires in 27h.
Price movement
+16.0pp over the last 24h, now 95¢.
Biggest hourly move: +40.5pp at Jun 1, 20:00 UTC (to 91¢).
Show top 8 of 52 hourly moves
- Jun 2, 22:00 UTC · +34.5pp → 90¢
- Jun 2, 21:00 UTC · +35.0pp → 90¢
- Jun 2, 17:00 UTC · +37.0pp → 94¢
- Jun 2, 14:00 UTC · +38.0pp → 92¢
- Jun 2, 12:00 UTC · +35.5pp → 90¢
- Jun 1, 21:00 UTC · +37.0pp → 87¢
- Jun 1, 20:00 UTC · +40.5pp → 91¢
- Jun 1, 18:00 UTC · +35.0pp → 85¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for NVIDIA (NVDA) on the final day of trading of the specified week (normally Friday) is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the final session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the NVIDIA (NVDA) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/history, published under "Historical Prices." In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.
Why this category?
confidence: mediumCategory
Source
Matched term
nvidiaReason
Question text contains "nvidia" — matched the Business keyword rule.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of June 1 above $210?"?
As of Thu, 04 Jun 2026 17:20:51 GMT, YES is priced at 95% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +16.0pp in the last 24 hours, +2.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Jun 5, 2026 (2026-06-05T20:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/history.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/history. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$602.74 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $613.99. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $11.6K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 3.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
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