Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from May 8 to May 15, 2026?
Probability
7¢
1h
-0.1pp
24h
+5.2pp
24h Vol
$667.36
Liquidity
$2.7K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 15, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- PrimaryPolymarket Post Counter (tracker)TypeTracker / counterConfidenceextracted · high
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Price move
Up 5pp over 24h
Now 7¢; -0.1pp in the last hour.
- 02Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $2.7k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Set an alert if probability drops back below 5¢ — that's where this move would be reversing.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 15, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- PrimaryPolymarket Post Counter (tracker)TypeTracker / counterConfidenceextracted · high
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 151.2h
Price movement
+5.2pp over the last 24h, now 7¢.
Biggest hourly move: -21.6pp at 2d ago (to 4¢).
Show top 8 of 28 hourly moves
- 22:00 · -7.5pp → 1¢
- 17:00 · -7.3pp → 2¢
- 1d ago · -12.5pp → 4¢
- 1d ago · -20.3pp → 4¢
- 2d ago · -18.8pp → 4¢
- 2d ago · -21.4pp → 4¢
- 2d ago · -21.6pp → 4¢
- 2d ago · -18.5pp → 7¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Related Markets
3Market Description
This market will resolve according to the number of times NYC Mayor Zohran Mamdani (@NYCMayor), posts on X between May 8, 12:00 PM ET and May 15, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Why this category?
confidence: lowCategory
Source
Reason
No override, sports marker, rule, or upstream hint matched. Market is unclassified — the keyword rules need an entry for this topic.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from May 8 to May 15, 2026?"?
As of Sat, 09 May 2026 08:50:23 GMT, YES is priced at 7% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +5.2pp in the last 24 hours, -0.1pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by May 15, 2026 (2026-05-15T16:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://x.com/NYCMayor.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from https://x.com/NYCMayor. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$667.36 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $792.29. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $2.7K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 2.3¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.
