Sardonic-Cue
0x8a7b576b7a53ef54876f9eca18bcd84f12d8782f
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
88
Open notional
$14.6K
Total PnL
$4.1K
Realised
$3.4K
Win rate
86%
44 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 88- NO
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?
3840 shares @ 99.5¢·now 99.8¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$3.8K
$9.60
- YES
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair and will rates stay above 2.5% in 2026?
1364 shares @ 88.4¢·now 93.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.3K
$69.79
- NO
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.0% or lower before 2027?
997 shares @ 90.9¢·now 96.7¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$963.14
$57.30
- NO
NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027?
1079 shares @ 77.7¢·now 84.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$911.87
$73.55
- NO
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.25% or lower before 2027?
945 shares @ 88.1¢·now 95.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$902.56
$70.09
- NO
Major U.S. bank bailout before 2027?
904 shares @ 72.6¢·now 93.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$840.51
$184.72
- NO
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.75% or lower before 2027?
612 shares @ 91.6¢·now 97.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$598.74
$37.86
- NO
Reserve Bank of Australia decreases interest rates by 25 bps at the August 2026 meeting?
500 shares @ 92.5¢·now 99.7¢·exp Aug 11, 2026$498.50
$36.00
- NO
Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?
500 shares @ 92.0¢·now 93.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$467.50
$7.50
- YES
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?
761 shares @ 59.9¢·now 60.5¢·exp Oct 28, 2026$460.41
$4.35
Recent activity
- MAKER_REBATE$9.82Jul 29, 00:45 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 29, 00:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump tries to fire Warsh in 2026?$46.60Jul 29, 00:02 UTC
- REWARD$10.78Jul 29, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed Pause–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?$0.09Jul 28, 23:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Japan announce a 50+ bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?$0.01Jul 28, 23:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?$11.23Jul 28, 21:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Japan announce a 50+ bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?$0.04Jul 28, 21:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair and will rates stay above 2.5% in 2026?$23.89Jul 28, 20:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$95.62Jul 28, 19:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$14.28Jul 28, 19:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$8.22Jul 28, 19:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$47.33Jul 28, 19:45 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$63.71Jul 28, 19:44 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$135.97Jul 28, 19:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$311.60Jul 28, 19:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$466.20Jul 28, 19:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$467.65Jul 28, 19:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$80.44Jul 28, 19:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$154.60Jul 28, 19:31 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
70/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
86% win rate over 44 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 45/100.
44 closed markets, 86% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $231.90
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 28, 00:10 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 00:45 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 44 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.