Blaring-Surge
0xcb894d56b6ed7f458e8534636a086b65e915a2e8
Wallet digest
Activity score
91/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
53
Open notional
$179.5K
Total PnL
$10.4K
Realised
$-2.4K
Win rate
43%
14 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 53- NO
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
21823 shares @ 86.5¢·now 84.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$18.3K
$-540.30
- NO
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?
19299 shares @ 77.8¢·now 89.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$17.2K
$2.2K
- YES
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
21568 shares @ 64.2¢·now 75.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$16.2K
$2.3K
- NO
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?
14766 shares @ 69.7¢·now 90.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$13.4K
$3.1K
- NO
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?
11745 shares @ 94.5¢·now 98.8¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$11.6K
$501.34
- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
12392 shares @ 75.7¢·now 91.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$11.3K
$2.0K
- YES
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?
9897 shares @ 95.5¢·now 97.8¢·exp Sep 6, 2026$9.7K
$223.78
- YES
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
8160 shares @ 83.6¢·now 80.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$6.6K
$-248.50
- NO
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026?
7068 shares @ 79.5¢·now 87.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$6.1K
$530.12
- NO
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026?
6281 shares @ 90.5¢·now 93.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$5.8K
$155.64
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?$43.34Jul 28, 13:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?$55.15Jul 28, 13:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$120.47Jul 28, 12:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the August meeting?$87.57Jul 28, 10:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYNo change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after August 2026 meeting?$150.40Jul 28, 10:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$134.48Jul 28, 09:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?$178.54Jul 28, 09:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$0.65Jul 28, 08:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael closes its airspace by July 31?$6.22Jul 28, 08:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael closes its airspace by July 31?$31.45Jul 28, 08:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?$1.38Jul 28, 08:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?$12.88Jul 28, 08:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?$3.45Jul 28, 08:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?$15.60Jul 28, 08:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?$644.06Jul 28, 08:15 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$1.97Jul 28, 00:45 UTC
- YIELD$2.86Jul 28, 00:14 UTC
- TAKER_REBATE$4.77Jul 28, 00:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$115.86Jul 27, 20:29 UTC
- TRADESELLKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?$1.5KJul 27, 20:01 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
29/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
43% win rate over 14 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
43 live trades, 1 ledger trades, copy-risk 54/100.
14 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
0%
Sample
low
1 ledger trades
Top market concentration
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
$21.8K · 100% of recorded whale volume
Recorded market concentration
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 43
- Avg trade size
- $464.41
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 26, 19:44 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 13:19 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 14 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.