SCOTUS bars counting mail ballots after election day?
Probability
81¢
1h
+2.0pp
24h
+8.5pp
24h Vol
$10.00
Liquidity
$4.0K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Aug 1, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- PrimarySupreme CourtTypeCourt recordConfidenceextracted · high
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (19.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
+2.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Up 9pp over 24h
Now 81¢; +2.0pp in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
- 03Spread cost
Wide spread — 19.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Aug 1, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- PrimarySupreme CourtTypeCourt recordConfidenceextracted · high
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (19.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Verification Brief
A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.
The market is live. Track source, liquidity, and wording before escalating it to a resolution-sensitive task.
Create trust-state alertVerification goal
Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.
What needs proof
Primary source
requiredConfirm the primary court record and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.
Current evidence: Supreme Court
Contract wording
requiredExtract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.
Orrery verification task SCOTUS bars counting mail ballots after election day? State: Live — live monitoring Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary court record and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. 3. Liquidity context: Check whether the move is supported by enough liquidity and volume to treat it as meaningful context. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.
Orrery verification brief SCOTUS bars counting mail ballots after election day? State: live monitoring Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.
Market link goes in reply
A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.
Sources
0
Criteria covered
0
Reviewed
0
Awaiting review
0
Submit a source mapped to a criterion
Recent source checks
Pilot audit summary
Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- Aug 1, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 1160.0h
- 16:02SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
Price movement
+8.5pp over the last 24h, now 81¢.
Biggest hourly move: +10.0pp at Jun 11, 08:00 UTC (to 82¢).
Show top 8 of 57 hourly moves
- Jun 12, 03:00 UTC · -7.5pp → 71¢
- Jun 12, 02:00 UTC · -8.0pp → 71¢
- Jun 11, 23:00 UTC · -8.0pp → 71¢
- Jun 11, 14:00 UTC · +7.5pp → 80¢
- Jun 11, 13:00 UTC · +10.0pp → 82¢
- Jun 11, 10:00 UTC · +8.5pp → 81¢
- Jun 11, 08:00 UTC · +10.0pp → 82¢
- Jun 10, 17:00 UTC · +8.0pp → 80¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Related Markets
3Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Supreme Court, in Watson v. Republican National Committee, rules that the federal election-day statutes preempt a state law that allows ballots cast by federal Election Day to be received and counted after election day, by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on the Supreme Court’s decision in this case. Other related cases or legislation will not affect resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Supreme Court; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
electionReason
Question text contains the high-signal keyword "election" — matched the Politics rule.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "SCOTUS bars counting mail ballots after election day?"?
As of Sat, 13 Jun 2026 16:02:52 GMT, YES is priced at 81% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +8.5pp in the last 24 hours, +2.0pp in the last hour, and +2.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Aug 1, 2026 (2026-08-01T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$10.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $40.7K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $4.0K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 19.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
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