SCOTUS bars counting mail ballots after election day?
Probability
69¢
1h
-0.5pp
24h
-0.5pp
24h Vol
$230.00
Liquidity
$19.6K
Probability (last 7 days)
-12.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 2338h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Thin liquidity
Only $19.6k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 2338.5h
- 13:31SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 2338h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 69¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 69¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 69¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 69¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 70¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 69¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 68¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 69¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 69¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 69¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 71¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 71¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 71¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 70¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.0pp
to 69¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.5pp
to 70¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.0pp
to 74¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -12.0pp
to 69¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Supreme Court, in Watson v. Republican National Committee, rules that the federal election-day statutes preempt a state law that allows ballots cast by federal Election Day to be received and counted after election day, by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on the Supreme Court’s decision in this case. Other related cases or legislation will not affect resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Supreme Court; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Aug 1, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).