PoliticsExpires May 15, 2026
Creator

Trump announces US troop reduction in Germany by May 15?

Probability

100¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

+0.0pp

24h Vol

$2.7K

Liquidity

$317.7K

Resolution & Risk

MEDIUM risk
End date
May 15, 2026
UMA status
proposed
Resolution source
Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Type
News consensus
Confidence
extracted · medium
Market type
Binary
  • UMA status: proposed
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
May 1, 2026, 23:00May 2, 2026, 01:58
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 1 factor
  • 01
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
  • Wait for the UMA proposal to settle (current status: proposed) — price moves now reflect oracle dynamics, not odds.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 310.0h

    LOW
  • 01:58Signal

    Resolution risk

    UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.

    LOW

Price movement

+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 100¢.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if President Trump, the U.S. government, or the U.S. military publicly and officially announces a reduction in the number of U.S. troops stationed in Germany by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A reduction in the number of U.S. troops stationed in Germany refers to any announcement that the overall number of United States military personnel stationed in Germany will be reduced. Announcements that certain categories, units, or subsets of United States military personnel will be removed from, transferred out of, or relocated away from Germany will count. Announcements restricted to individual cases, routine rotations, regularly scheduled troop movements, or temporary deployments that do not indicate a reduction in U.S. troop presence in Germany will not qualify. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify. Written public statements from Donald Trump, including posts from his personal Truth Social account, will qualify. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Note: This market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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