Trump announces US troop reduction in Germany by May 15?
Probability
100¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$2.7K
Liquidity
$317.7K
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- May 15, 2026
- UMA status
- proposed
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- UMA status: proposed
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 1 factor- 01Active signal
Resolution-risk signal firing
UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Wait for the UMA proposal to settle (current status: proposed) — price moves now reflect oracle dynamics, not odds.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- May 15, 2026
- UMA status
- proposed
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- UMA status: proposed
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 310.0h
- 01:58SignalLOW
Resolution risk
UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.
Price movement
+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 100¢.
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if President Trump, the U.S. government, or the U.S. military publicly and officially announces a reduction in the number of U.S. troops stationed in Germany by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A reduction in the number of U.S. troops stationed in Germany refers to any announcement that the overall number of United States military personnel stationed in Germany will be reduced. Announcements that certain categories, units, or subsets of United States military personnel will be removed from, transferred out of, or relocated away from Germany will count. Announcements restricted to individual cases, routine rotations, regularly scheduled troop movements, or temporary deployments that do not indicate a reduction in U.S. troop presence in Germany will not qualify. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify. Written public statements from Donald Trump, including posts from his personal Truth Social account, will qualify. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Note: This market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe.
Alerts
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