Trump weaponization fund blocked by June 30?
Probability
56¢
1h
+5.5pp
24h
+5.0pp
24h Vol
$29.97
Liquidity
$1.2K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- PrimaryDepartment of Justice announced the creation ofLinkTypeOfficial government sourceConfidenceextracted · high
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (19.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Up 5pp over 24h
Now 56¢; +5.5pp in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
- 03Spread cost
Wide spread — 19.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- PrimaryDepartment of Justice announced the creation ofLinkTypeOfficial government sourceConfidenceextracted · high
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (19.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- Jun 30, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 897.6h
- 14:24SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
Price movement
+5.0pp over the last 24h, now 56¢.
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Related Markets
3Market Description
On May 18, 2026, the United States Department of Justice announced the creation of “The Anti-Weaponization Fund,” a program intended to compensate individuals or entities that were harmed by “weaponization of the criminal justice system” (see: https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/justice-department-announces-anti-weaponization-fund). This market will resolve to “Yes” if any US court legally blocks the payment of funds from The Anti-Weaponization Fund by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying block must be a general block on the payment of funds from The Anti-Weaponization Fund, including broader blocks on the implementation of the fund as a whole. Blocks limited to specific individuals or instances of payments will not qualify. Any official court action that temporarily or permanently creates a qualifying block (e.g., a temporary restraining order, preliminary injunction, stay, or substantially similar order) will count. Filings, hearings, or statements without an operative order will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from relevant courts, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
trumpReason
Question text contains the high-signal keyword "trump" — matched the Politics rule.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Trump weaponization fund blocked by June 30?"?
As of Sat, 23 May 2026 14:24:56 GMT, YES is priced at 56% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +5.0pp in the last 24 hours, +5.5pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Jun 30, 2026 (2026-06-30T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$29.97 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $117.22. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $1.2K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 19.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
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