SportsExpires May 10, 2026

Will the fight be won by submission?

Probability

49¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

+1.0pp

24h Vol

$0.00

Liquidity

$35.17

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 23:00Apr 25, 2026, 21:27
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  • 1

    Up 1pp over 24h

    Now 49¢; flat in the last hour.

  • 2

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 343h with open resolution ambiguity.

  • 3

    Wide spread — 82.0¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 342.5h

    LOW
  • 21:28Signal

    Resolution risk

    Expires in 343h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW

Price movement

+1.0pp over the last 24h, now 49¢.

Biggest hourly move: -3.5pp at 2d ago (to 48¢).

Show top 8 of 24 hourly moves
  • 05:00 · -3.5pp → 48¢
  • 03:00 · -3.5pp → 48¢
  • 02:00 · -3.5pp → 48¢
  • 00:00 · -3.5pp → 48¢
  • 23:00 · -3.5pp → 48¢
  • 1d ago · -3.5pp → 48¢
  • 1d ago · -3.5pp → 48¢
  • 1d ago · -3.5pp → 48¢
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Djorden Santos and Baisangur Susurkaev at UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland, scheduled for May 9, 2026, ends by submission, including tapout, verbal submission, or technical submission (referee stoppage due to a submission hold). Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If the fight ends in a draw or by disqualification (either fighter), it will resolve "No." If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond May 23, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
May 10, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
Market type
Binary
  • Wide spread (82.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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Top Holders

No holder data from the Data API.