U.S. evacuates Baghdad Embassy by April 30?

1. 1

   Resolution-risk signal firing

   Expires in 107h with open resolution ambiguity.

2. 2

   Thin liquidity

   Only $21.6k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

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This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad, Iraq, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe. Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count. The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.