US fertility rate up in Q1 2026?
Probability
20¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-4.0pp
24h Vol
$54.48
Liquidity
$100.66
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Down 4pp over 24h
Now 20¢; flat in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk signal firing
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
- 03Spread cost
Wide spread — 15.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5894.5h
- 09:29SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
Price movement
-4.0pp over the last 24h, now 20¢.
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
The CDC estimates a general fertility rate of 53.3 births per 1,000 women aged 15–44 for Q4 2025 (see: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/natality-dashboard.htm). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the initial reported rate for Q1 2026 exceeds 53.3, according to the CDC's Vital Statistics Rapid Release series. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the CDC does not release general fertility rate data for Q1 2026 by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". Resolution will be based on the first published estimate for Q1 2026, regardless of any subsequent revisions. The resolution source will be the CDC’s Vital Statistics Rapid Release.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primarythe CDC's Vital Statistics Rapid Release seriesLinkTypeAmbiguous wordingConfidenceextracted · low
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (15.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
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