US grants license for new nuclear reactor in 2026?
Probability
33¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$28.57
Liquidity
$2.5K
Probability (last 7 days)
-1.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 5984h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Wide spread — 14.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5984.3h
- 15:42SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 5984h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 15:42PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 30¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.5pp
to 29¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 36¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 36¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 31¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 31¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 32¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 34¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.0pp
to 28¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.5pp
to 30¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 31¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 30¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 30¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 31¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 33¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 31¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 33¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 32¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 32¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 33¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 34¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 33¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 33¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 33¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 33¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.0pp
to 36¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 32¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 32¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) issues a new combined license (COL) for the construction and operation of a nuclear power plant by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A combined license must be clearly identified as such and documented in official NRC releases. Only initial issuances count; amendments, renewals, or partial approvals do not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (14.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).