UnclassifiedMulti-outcomeExpires May 12, 2026
Creator

Will White House post 100-119 posts from May 5 to May 12, 2026?

Probability

6¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

-4.0pp

24h Vol

$106.95

Liquidity

$596.21

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
May 12, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
White House
Link
xtracker.polymarket.com
Type
Official government source
Confidence
extracted · high
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
  • Wide spread (9.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
May 2, 2026, 06:00May 4, 2026, 22:46
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Down 4pp over 24h

    Now 6¢; flat in the last hour.

  • 02
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.

  • 03
    Spread cost

    Wide spread — 9.0¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 185.2h

    LOW
  • 22:46Signal

    Resolution risk

    Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.

    LOW

Price movement

-4.0pp over the last 24h, now 6¢.

Biggest hourly move: -42.0pp at 18:00 (to 7¢).

Show 4 hourly moves
  • 22:00 · -38.5pp → 6¢
  • 20:00 · -37.5pp → 7¢
  • 19:00 · -40.5pp → 7¢
  • 18:00 · -42.0pp → 7¢
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feedBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

13
Same eventWhite House # posts May 5 - May 12, 2026?
Category · Other

Market Description

This market will resolve according to the number of times White House (@WhiteHouse), posts on X between May 5, 12:00 PM ET and May 12, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.

Top Holders

6 wallets
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