Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 4-May 10?
Probability
2¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.1pp
24h Vol
$10.00
Liquidity
$628.42
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 10, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 1 factor- 01Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $628 of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 10, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 172.0h
Price movement
+0.1pp over the last 24h, now 2¢.
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Related Markets
10- 7¢-4.5
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 4-May 10?
Geopolitics · Vol $21.50
- 10¢+3.5
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 4-May 10?
Geopolitics · Vol $159.96
- 47¢+0.5
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 4-May 10?
Geopolitics · Vol $68.41
- 37¢-0.5
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 4-May 10?
Geopolitics · Vol $0.00
- 2¢-0.3
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?
Geopolitics · Vol $680.1K
- 2¢-5.1
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?
Geopolitics · Vol $388.7K
- 0¢0.0
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Geopolitics · Vol $388.2K
- 30¢-1.0
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Geopolitics · Vol $375.9K
- 5¢-1.0
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?
Geopolitics · Vol $344.1K
- 7¢-0.1
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Geopolitics · Vol $335.5K
Market Description
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 4, 2026, through May 10, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.