OtherExpires Jan 1, 2027

Will a coin launched in 2026 end the year in the top 20?

Probability

49¢

1h

-0.5pp

24h

-0.5pp

24h Vol

$0.00

Liquidity

$344.80

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
Apr 19, 2026, 01:00Apr 25, 2026, 17:15
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  1. 1

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 6012h with open resolution ambiguity.

  2. 2

    Wide spread — 13.0¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice
  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 6011.7h

    LOW
  • 17:15Signal

    Signal · Resolution risk

    Expires in 6012h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW
  • 18:00Price

    Probability up 4.0pp

    to 49¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 5.0pp

    to 49¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 5.0pp

    to 49¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 4.5pp

    to 48¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 5.5pp

    to 49¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -5.5pp

    to 43¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -4.5pp

    to 44¢

    MEDIUM
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if at least one coin launched in 2026 appears in the top 20 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization on CoinGecko at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.” Rankings will be determined using CoinGecko’s market capitalization rankings (https://www.coingecko.com/). Stablecoins, liquid staking tokens (LSTs), liquidity pool tokens, and synthetic representations of other assets will not qualify.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Jan 1, 2027
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
CoinGeckoExchange priceextracted · high
coingecko.com
Market type
Binary
  • Wide spread (13.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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