OtherExpires Jan 1, 2027

Will a coin launched in 2026 end the year in the top 5?

Probability

1h

+0.0pp

24h

+0.1pp

24h Vol

$0.00

Liquidity

$2.5K

Probability (last 7 days)

-0.2pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 20:00Apr 25, 2026, 19:42
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  1. 1

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 6009h with open resolution ambiguity.

  2. 2

    Wide spread — 6.5¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 6009.3h

    LOW
  • 19:42Signal

    Resolution risk

    Expires in 6009h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW

Price movement

+0.1pp over the last 24h, now 6¢.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if at least one coin launched in 2026 appears in the top 5 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization on CoinGecko at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.” Rankings will be determined using CoinGecko’s market capitalization rankings (https://www.coingecko.com/). Stablecoins, liquid staking tokens (LSTs), liquidity pool tokens, and synthetic representations of other assets will not qualify.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Jan 1, 2027
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
CoinGeckoExchange priceextracted · high
coingecko.com
Market type
Binary
  • Wide spread (6.5¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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