Will a coin launched in 2026 end the year in the top 5?
Probability
6¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.1pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$2.5K
Probability (last 7 days)
-0.2pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 6009h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Wide spread — 6.5¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 6009.3h
- 19:42SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 6009h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
+0.1pp over the last 24h, now 6¢.
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if at least one coin launched in 2026 appears in the top 5 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization on CoinGecko at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.” Rankings will be determined using CoinGecko’s market capitalization rankings (https://www.coingecko.com/). Stablecoins, liquid staking tokens (LSTs), liquidity pool tokens, and synthetic representations of other assets will not qualify.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jan 1, 2027
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- CoinGeckoExchange priceextracted · highcoingecko.com
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (6.5¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.