Will a coin launched in 2026 end the year in the top 50?
Probability
82¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.5pp
24h Vol
$4.46
Liquidity
$1.8K
Probability (last 7 days)
-7.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 6015h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Wide spread — 13.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 6015.1h
- 13:55SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 6015h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 13:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 82¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 82¢
- 10:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 82¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.5pp
to 79¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 82¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.5pp
to 80¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 82¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.5pp
to 80¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 81¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 82¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 81¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.5pp
to 78¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 81¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.0pp
to 78¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.0pp
to 78¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.0pp
to 80¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.5pp
to 78¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 81¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 81¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 81¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 81¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 81¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 81¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 81¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 81¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 81¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.5pp
to 79¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.0pp
to 79¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if at least one coin launched in 2026 appears in the top 50 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization on CoinGecko at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.” Rankings will be determined using CoinGecko’s market capitalization rankings (https://www.coingecko.com/). Stablecoins, liquid staking tokens (LSTs), liquidity pool tokens, and synthetic representations of other assets will not qualify.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jan 1, 2027
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (13.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).